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Game 1

No one asked what I thought about the Post Game 1 world we now live in, so I am going to tell you anyway. I did, however, say people that donated to my Movember got looped into my World Series Text Chain ™. That said, I can assure you, no one really wants that, and I was also busy winning trivia at the bar down the street last night, which meant no phone usage.

tl;dr - winning beats losing.

Over on fivethirtyeight.com, they’re giving the Cubs a 54 percent chance of winning Game 2 tonight and the Indians a 55 percent chance to do the one thing left to do (hint: it’s “win the whole fucking thing.”). They also - somehow - pick the Cubs to win the next 4 games. Which seems totally incongruous. 

It bears noting, though, that I don’t think their pitcher adjustments takes bullpens into account. That seems like a major flaw. Which means surely I am missing something. It seems like you’d want to factor in the most dominant pitcher of the post season and the ALCS MVP. But what the hell do I know? Maybe that’s how we keep sneaking up on people. 

Also, potentially of note: Danny Salazar isn’t factored in.

Historically,* when the home team wins Game 1 of the World Series, they go on to win Game 2 55.8 percent of the time and go on to win the series 68.8 percent of the time.

When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 0-9 and a Game 2 record of 4-5.

* This is sort of a worthless stat, as MLB changed the way they awarded World Series home field advantage in 2003 … so we don’t really have a hundred year yardstick here. Merely 13 years. Speaking of that ...

I saw this from ESPN today:

Over the past three decades, almost every team that lost Game 1 of the World Series found it had just dug itself a canyon it couldn't climb out of. It's tough to comprehend, but Game 1 losers have lost the past six World Series. And 12 of the past 13. And 17 of the past 19. Not to mention 19 of the past 22 and 24 of the past 28. Going all the way back to 1997, the only two teams to lose Game 1 and survive were the 2009 Yankees and the 2002 Angels. Hard to believe in a best-of-seven series, but 100 percent true.

I haven’t researched it, but I’m assuming it’s 100 percent true. it’s also fairly worthless as you’re dealing with one of the least lucky franchises on one of the least lucky towns in the history of professional organized sports.

But none of that means shit for this series.

Regardless, today, I awoke in a world where my beloved Indians led the World Series for the first time since 1948. And I’ve savored that bit of awesome all day. Because I fully expect Arrieta to completely clamp down the Indians lineup tonight as the Cubs exit Progressive Field with a W. 

Conventional wisdom would call this loss a disaster for the Indians. And it’s certainly not good, Bob. Losing Game 2 at home means the Cubs just have to win 3, 4 and 5 in Wrigley (where they have the best record in baseball) and they can schedule a parade. 

But, as great as a 2-0 knockout punch would be, I think Tito’s playing the long game with this series. My gut tells me he’s trying to make sure he’s got a 100 percent Kluber, a 100 percent Miller and a 100 percent Allen to throw at the Cubs in Game 1 (check) Game 4 (perhaps) and Game 7 (we’ll see) because he’s confident that’s 3 wins for the Good Guys. Throw the kitchen sink at them for games 2, 3, 5 and 6 and maybe you get lucky with one of those.

I also know the Indians are the only team in baseball that didn’t have a 4 game losing streak this season. I’m aware of that fact because Tito’s bragged about it to the radio crew a few times. Which is to say I am pretty sure it’s something he relishes and think he’s banking on it. “Cede” game 2 to the Cubs, keep your powder dry, because you’re confident they’re not taking the series 4-1. 

First pitch tonight was moved up an hour to 7 eastern due to anticipated bad weather in the Cleveland area. Personally, that’s good for me, because I am fucking dead tired. However, I think there’s a bit of an edge to that for the Cubs. I’d love a situation where Bauer gave us 5 or 6 good innings and then a rain out meant we got to come back tomorrow to finish it out with a rested Miller taking the hill. 

But we don’t get what we want, so I’ll take the extra sleep.

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Me and TED

So, here's a thing: Yesterday I was asked to give a TEDx talk next month.

Somehow, for some reason, I accepted. I think it was somewhat because my girlfriend acted like it was such a no-brainer to accept, and I always want to be the sort of guy my girlfriend would date.

So. Here we are.

If you'd like to come, all you need to know and do is here.

More as there is more to report.

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We interrupt this rant ...

I was walking back from lunch when I perfected another rant about my work life. And then I decided to write something else.

Namely, I come here to praise the music of Leopold and His Fiction.

Seriously, go check it out here.

How these guys aren't huge stars is beyond me, and it's been that way for years. That sound is amazing, and feels right at home in a spot where lots of huge bands have staked out huge careers.

They even played ACL Festival last year.

So. Really. What gives?

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11 Tips from Bill Hicks

Clearly, I stole this. But that doesn't make it any less important.

 

  1.  If you can, be yourself on stage. Nobody else can be you and you have the law of supply and demand covered.
  2. The act is something you fall back on if you can't think of anything else to say.
  3. Only do what you think is funny, never just what you think they will like, even though it's not that funny to you.
  4. Never ask them is this funny. You tell them this is funny.
  5. You are not married to any of this shit - if something happens, taking you off on a tangent, NEVER go back and finish a bit, just move on.
  6. NEVER ask the audience "How You Doing?" People who do that can't think of an opening line. They came to see you to tell them how they're doing, asking that stupid question up front just digs a hole. This is The Most Common Mistake made by performers. I want to leave as soon as they say that.
  7. Write what entertains you. If you can't be funny be interesting. You haven't lost the crowd. Have something to say and then do it in a funny way.
  8. I close my eyes and walk out there and that's where I start, Honest.
  9. Listen to what you are saying, ask yourself, "Why am I saying it and is it Necessary?" (This will filter all your material and cut the unnecessary words, economy of words)
  10. Play to the top of the intelligence of the room. There aren't any bad crowds, just wrong choices.
  11. Remember this is the hardest thing there is to do. If you can do this you can do anything!

 

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Advertising ... More like SADvertsing ... amirite?

-or-

Why I Hate Working in Advertising #1875

So, we're building these banners, and they require PNG sequences of a CGI Product.

So, we finally present the animations to the client yesterday (a week late, because the creative director didn't want to show them anything that wasn't "perfect.") and the clients reject them.

I immediately send an email that says, "RED FLAG: we will not make our deadline."

The account team's reaction? "We can't be late on these."

Well that's not exactly a fucking solution, now is it. dumbfuck?

So they tell me I should write my boss. So I do.

His reaction?

"Shit. What are you going to do?"

Is it any wonder my 5 year goal is to start a Foundation with the aim of getting everyone jobs not in ad agencies?

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Dear Josh Gondelman -

So, here's the thing. Josh Gondelman is a super talented comic and writer who's really taken off in the last year or so. He also happens to be a friend of a friend. And I happen to have met him briefly on one occasion.

But only one time. Briefly.

A couple of months ago, I meekly, sheepishly sent him a heavily edited, super spell checked email, asking his advice for a fellow like me ... one that just can't bear to work in advertising another moment longer. One who has a little comedic instinct, but doesn't just *love* doing stand up. 

Perhaps the best advice he gave me was, "Try a bunch of different things. Work hard at them. have fun with them. Do the ones that are the most fun the hardest, especially if there's a way you can get them in front of people."

I shared that passage with about eleventy hundred people in the weeks after that, as I dove, headfirst into a lot of passion projects. Which were timed almost perfectly to coincide with my savings running out after my last advertising agency career swearing off. 

But ... still a spark was sparked.

I've felt a bit of duty to honor those words that struck a real chord with me. Perhaps I've been a project manager a bit too long, but I feel like I should provide updates on that mission. But. Continued correspondence with Josh Gondelman seems ... creeptastic.

But, Dear Josh.

If you care, I've started basic improv classes at the PiT. I'm in the middle of a writing workshop from Laughing Buddha. I've started a beer site called sudsofanarchy.com with a friend of mine, and I'm starting something else called Renaissance Person with another friend of mine. Sort of a happy hour for the curious ... sort of a talk show. 

Your biggest fan.

-Colby Angus Black

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Here's some of my weekly reading ...

The past couple of years, I've come to be a bit of content curator. I pick songs for a couple of lists over at a song a day. I also find myself sending articles around to folks who I think will enjoy them.

This week, I found this story over on The New Yorker, and I shared it with a few people, and Casual Spectator picked it up. It's a real good piece by Ian Crouch, that's not only about Ron Darling's new book about the forgotten moments of the 1986 World Series that occurred after  (and, seriously ... go hit that link, if only for the commercials.)

Strike that ... go watch it because it's awesome, and I love basically everything about that (other than the lack of representation of people of color in the crowds and front team personnel, but ... eh ... it was 1986) I remember watching that game as a 10 year old. I remember that terrible wood paneling in the dugouts at Shea. I remember snap front satin jackets meaning fall baseball.

However, I do not 3 minutes and 23 seconds of absolutely perfect shutting the fuck up from the NBC network talking heads. Can you imagine that happening today? Sports announcers realizing the scene speaks for itself and they can only make it worse by talking over it? They'd be fired and the director would go to the truck after 6 seconds of silence. 

Anyway, I'll also point you to this, an article on The Verge about what's about to happen to your movie going experience. Apparently, Sean Parker, of Napster fame, is about to run theatre chains out of business

What's amazing to me is, the piece goes on and on about the reasons people don't go to the movies, and totally misses the reason I've adjusted my movie going strategy: PEOPLE CAN'T JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP ANY MORE. 

I didn't realize this was really related to the 10th inning of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. But there you go: more people just need to shut the fuck up more. 

-30-

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Testing something

after telling Gina this worked ... i figured i should make sure.

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App of the week

To be given out only in weeks were I find an app worth recommending.

So, here it is: the first app of the week around here.

Overcast is an amazing free podcast player for iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. I know what you're thinking ... I already have that janky podcast app that comes with my phone ... why would I download another one?

Well, dear reader. Precisely because that app on your phone is janky. And can that app of yours automagically trim the silent spaces between spoken words to trim time from a podcast without you noticing a thing?

I didn't think so.

Downside, you'll have use Overcast's simple interface to re-subscribe to any podcasts, and you'll have to fire up janky to unsubscribe over there. But it's a small price to pay. Overcast is just that awesome and solves a problem I didn't know I had.

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